开启“全无人测试”，特斯拉的“Robotaxi故事”进入关键验证期

Core Insights - Tesla has officially launched fully autonomous Robotaxi testing in Austin, marking a critical validation phase for its autonomous driving commercialization strategy [1][3] - Morgan Stanley views this development as a significant catalyst for validating Tesla's Robotaxi strategy [1][5] Expansion Strategy - Tesla aims to remove safety supervisors from its Robotaxi service, aligning with its goal to enhance safety metrics post-removal, which is crucial for expanding into new states and cities by 2026 [7] - The production of the Cybercab, designed specifically for autonomous driving, is targeted for April 2026, which is expected to further reduce costs and accelerate adoption [7] Fleet Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla's Robotaxi fleet will grow from 200 vehicles in 2025 to 1,000 in 2026, and continue to expand to 30,000 by 2030, ultimately reaching 1 million by 2035 [8] - The projected passenger miles for Robotaxi services are expected to increase from nearly zero in 2026 to 40.8 billion miles by 2035, reflecting advancements in safety validation, regulatory approval, and technology optimization [8] Cost Advantages - Tesla is expected to achieve an operational cost of $0.59 per mile by 2028, significantly lower than competitors like Waymo at $0.75, traditional ride-sharing services at $0.99, and private vehicle costs at $0.81 [12][14] - This cost advantage stems from a vertically integrated technology stack, the specifications of the Cybercab, and the choice of a pure vision sensor solution [14] Data Collection and FSD Deployment - The successful operation of the Robotaxi fleet is crucial for collecting real-world autonomous driving data, which will serve as key evidence for regulatory discussions and the rollout of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) for personal vehicles [15][16] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by 2035, the FSD penetration rate for Tesla's personal vehicles will reach 70%, with an estimated vehicle count of around 35 million [16] Competitive Positioning - The automotive industry is approaching a pivotal moment driven by AI, with Tesla's lead in data, computing power, and algorithms significantly outpacing most electric vehicle competitors [18] - Morgan Stanley's DCF valuation model sets a target price of $425 for Tesla, based on various business segments, while maintaining a "hold" rating and an "in-line" industry outlook [18]