从金属到股市，海外市场正在重新定价“美国经济加速增长”

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are undergoing a significant repricing driven by a reassessment of the U.S. economic growth outlook, with cyclical assets outperforming defensive sectors and a notable rebound in risk appetite indicators [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs' risk appetite indicator reached 0.75, the highest level since January, indicating a strong performance of risk assets driven by improved growth expectations [3]. - The PC1 "global growth" factor recorded one of its largest rebounds since 2000 over the past three weeks, reflecting a significant reassessment of growth expectations [3]. - The market's growth reassessment is highly synchronized with global macro surprise indices, with macro data from developed and emerging markets generally exceeding expectations [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors, particularly materials and financials, have significantly outperformed defensive sectors in this growth reassessment, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 12% growth in earnings per share by 2026 [4]. - The rise in U.S. and German 10-year government bond yields is primarily driven by real interest rates, while inflation pricing has lagged behind the rebound in cyclical assets [4]. - The commodity market has also benefited from improved growth expectations, with copper prices showing strong performance as an economic growth indicator [7]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Goldman Sachs maintains a moderately risk-on asset allocation strategy for 2026, recommending an overweight in equities over the next 3 to 12 months, with neutral positions in bonds, commodities, and cash, and an underweight in credit [8]. - The importance of diversification and hedging strategies is emphasized to protect equity overweight positions, with tools such as front-end rate receivers and CDS buyers being considered effective for hedging against negative growth shocks [8]. - Current U.S. equity pricing reflects growth expectations close to market consensus but has further upside potential if economic data continues to exceed expectations, particularly if U.S. growth reaches Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2.5% [8].