Tesla(US:TSLA) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-16 14:09Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla (TSLA.US) will significantly expand its Robotaxi fleet by 2026, with an expected increase to 1,000 vehicles from the current 50 to 150 vehicles, and a target of 1 million Robotaxis by the end of 2035 [1][2]. Group 1: Robotaxi Expansion - Tesla is making progress in its Robotaxi business, with CEO Elon Musk confirming the launch of driverless Robotaxi road tests in Austin, Texas, and plans to remove safety supervisors from vehicles within three weeks [1][2]. - The Robotaxi service will charge a fixed fee of $4.20, and Musk emphasizes that it represents a "trillion-dollar opportunity" with potential profit margins of 70% to 80% [2][3]. - Key catalysts for the Robotaxi project include the public launch of the service without safety supervisors, improvement in safety metrics, and the production start of the Cybercab in April 2026 [3]. Group 2: Sales Challenges - Despite advancements in the Robotaxi sector, Tesla's core automotive sales are facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in sales across major European markets [4][5]. - In November, Tesla's new car sales in France dropped by 58%, in Denmark by 49%, and in Sweden by 59%, indicating a loss of market share despite overall growth in electric vehicle demand [4]. - In the U.S., Tesla's estimated sales fell by 23% year-over-year in November, marking the lowest monthly sales since January 2022, attributed to the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits [6][7]. Group 3: Market Performance - Tesla's market share in the U.S. increased from 43.1% to 56.7% despite a sales decline, as its drop was less severe compared to competitors, who faced over 41% declines in overall electric vehicle sales [7]. - In China, Tesla's Shanghai factory reported a 10% year-over-year increase in sales in November, with 86,700 vehicles sold, marking a rare highlight amid global sales declines [7].