批价连续反弹,飞天茅台展现强价格韧性,年末供需格局印证长期价值

Core Viewpoint - The market for high-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is experiencing a significant recovery in prices and demand as the year-end consumption peak approaches, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and trading activity [1][6][9]. Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has shown a notable upward trend, with the wholesale price rising to the range of 1570-1600 RMB per bottle, and some regions reporting prices as high as 1630 RMB per bottle, reflecting a significant recovery from previous levels [1][6]. - On December 15, the retail price of Feitian Moutai was reported at 1828 RMB per bottle, marking a daily increase of 20 RMB, which positions it as a leading force in the liquor market [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The increase in prices is attributed to a combination of real demand release and proactive supply adjustments by Moutai, with significant sales activity noted in regions like Tianjin, where prices reached 1630 RMB per bottle [6][7]. - The demand surge is driven by year-end business banquets and gifting needs, alongside a growing consensus in the market that "drinking is not for speculation," which has led to increased purchasing intentions from small and medium enterprises [6][9]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai is actively adjusting its supply in response to market demand, which has helped stabilize channel sentiment and mitigate year-end selling pressure, reinforcing the company's commitment to maintaining healthy channels and price stability [7][9]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation from a "channel-centric" approach to a "consumer-centric" model, focusing on enhancing channel efficiency and user engagement through various marketing reforms and initiatives [8]. Industry Outlook - The white liquor industry is currently in a phase of deep adjustment and structural optimization, with Moutai leading the way towards a healthier evolution characterized by a return to value-based pricing and genuine sales [9]. - As policies continue to emphasize domestic demand and consumption, the consumption environment for liquor is expected to improve further, with Moutai leveraging its strong brand presence and cultural innovation to expand its consumer base and engagement [9].