BBMarkets：法兴银行继续看涨黄金，预计年底将达到5000美元

Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale's latest investment strategy report indicates that gold will maintain an advantage over U.S. bonds and the dollar until 2026, recommending investors to buy on dips to secure long-term investment value in gold [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Investment Strategy - Societe Generale has maintained a stable allocation of 10% for gold in its multi-asset investment portfolio, making it the only asset class with a high allocation [3]. - The bank expects the international spot gold price to rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by increasing demand from retail investors and central banks [3]. - Retail investors are diversifying their assets, with significant funds flowing into the gold market through physical gold and gold ETFs [3]. Group 2: Central Bank and Economic Factors - Global central banks are reducing their dollar asset holdings in favor of gold, which is viewed as a preferred asset for diversification of foreign exchange reserves [3]. - The potential shift to a dovish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, especially after personnel changes, is expected to enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge and a safeguard against currency depreciation [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The correlation between the U.S. stock and bond markets remains significantly higher than historical norms, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional stock-bond diversification [4]. - Gold exhibits low correlation with stocks and bonds, even showing negative correlation during market volatility, making it a key tool for optimizing risk-return profiles in investment portfolios [4].