大行评级丨华兴资本：震坤行Q3亏损收窄 预计下季度实现盈利 维持“买入”评级

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that despite a slight year-on-year decline in total merchandise transaction volume, the decrease is narrowing, and net losses have significantly reduced, showing continuous improvement in operational conditions. Management expects a return to year-on-year growth and profitability in the fourth quarter [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's total GMV was 2.62 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but the decline has notably narrowed compared to previous quarters [1]. - The total number of customers surpassed 70,000, reaching a historical high, and the average daily order value increased from 37 million RMB in July to 52 million RMB in November, showing significant growth [1]. - Non-GAAP operating loss and net loss for Q3 were 22 million RMB and 14 million RMB, respectively, with improvements in profit margins both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Management revealed that the company achieved breakeven in September and expects to achieve quarterly profitability in Q4 [1]. - The overseas business is projected to reach breakeven by 2026 [1]. Group 3: Supply Chain and AI Integration - The company added 2.3 million SKUs in the quarter, bringing the total to over 19 million, and onboarded over 1,200 new suppliers, primarily OEMs [2]. - The self-owned brand business grew robustly, with GMV increasing by 16.7% year-on-year, accounting for 8.2% of total GMV, with a long-term goal of contributing 30% [2]. - The company launched a large model "Expert Linglong" specifically developed for the MRO industry, and AI applications have shown effectiveness, with customer service handling order volume increasing by 42% year-on-year and procurement efficiency improving by 52% [2]. - AI product recommendations have generated over 100 million RMB in incremental sales revenue since their launch [2]. Group 4: Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that the company's Q4 GMV and revenue will return to year-on-year growth of 4% and 5%, respectively, and will achieve an adjusted net profit of 8 million RMB [2].