Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the Chinese stock market is positive, with expectations of a rebound in earnings growth from a low base in 2025, leading to an upgrade in valuation attractiveness [1] Group 1: Chinese Stock Market - Standard Chartered maintains an overweight position on Chinese stocks, predicting the Hang Seng Index to range between 28,000 and 30,000 points over the next 12 months [1] - If investment sentiment deteriorates or if there is insufficient policy support, the index could drop to a range of 26,000 to 28,000 points [1] - Concerns about asset valuation and potential bubbles in artificial intelligence capital expenditure may increase next year, with volatility being more significant than the bubble debate [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times next year, with a potential total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable for risk assets, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company suggests a diversified investment strategy, recommending an overweight position in gold and global equities while reducing exposure to European (excluding the UK) and Japanese stocks [1] - India is recommended for an overweight position due to its favorable outlook [1] Group 4: Emerging Bonds and Gold - The company is overweight on emerging market bonds, expecting them to outperform developed markets as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields may fall to between 3.75% and 4% over the next 12 months [2] - Gold is anticipated to challenge new highs, with spot gold potentially reaching $4,800 next year as central banks and investors seek alternatives to the dollar [2]
渣打：料恒指明年达28000-30000点 基本情境下美联储明年将减息3次