东吴证券：重卡内销与出口共振 景气度持续向好

Core Insights - The heavy truck industry in November met the expectations of Dongwu Securities for domestic sales, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [1] - The total inventory coefficient for the industry in November was calculated at 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [1] - The company forecasts that wholesale sales of heavy trucks will reach approximately 115,000 units by December 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% [1] Sales Performance - November production of heavy trucks was 114,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8% [1] - Heavy truck wholesale sales in November reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 65.4% and month-on-month growth of 6.6% [1] - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [1] - Exports of heavy trucks in November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - The overall industry inventory increased by 4,200 units in November, with corporate inventory rising by 800 units and channel inventory increasing by 3,400 units [1] Industry Structure - In terms of usage, engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in November, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, showing year-on-year growth of 41.2% and month-on-month growth of 13.1% [2] - Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year growth of 33.5% and month-on-month growth of 8.9% [2] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in November was 25.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [2] Market Share - In November, the domestic market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), and others, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] - For exports, Jiefang held a market share of 21.2%, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 17.4%, despite a decline compared to the previous year [4] - In November, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [4]