TMGM外汇平台：摩根大通为何大幅减持现金、增持国债？

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has significantly adjusted its fund allocation over the past year, reducing its cash holdings at the Federal Reserve while increasing its holdings in U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting a proactive strategy to prepare for potential interest rate declines [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Changes - As of the third quarter of this year, JPMorgan's cash balance at the Federal Reserve has decreased from approximately $409 billion at the end of 2022 to about $63 billion [1]. - Concurrently, the bank's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have risen from $231 billion to approximately $450 billion, allowing the bank to lock in relatively high yields and mitigate future earnings pressure from potential interest rate declines [1][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment - The interest rate levels have experienced rapid increases and subsequent adjustments over the past two years, with a significant rise in benchmark rates from 2022 to early 2023, followed by a projected rate cut period starting at the end of 2024 [4]. - Financial institutions are adjusting their asset structures by converting some cash assets into fixed-income assets in response to the changing interest rate policies [4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - JPMorgan's fund transfer is substantial, exceeding the total changes in Federal Reserve account balances of thousands of other banks, indicating a common management approach among banks during interest rate cycle changes [7]. - This adjustment reflects a typical strategy of allocating longer-term assets during high-interest phases to balance potential future earnings volatility, contrasting with some peers who increased long-term bond holdings during low-rate periods [7]. - The asset structure adjustment demonstrates the logic of asset reallocation by large banks in response to anticipated changes in the interest rate environment, maintaining liquidity while preparing for future operational conditions [8].