Tesla(US:TSLA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-17 11:02Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a dichotomy, with Tesla's stock reaching a historic high while the energy sector declines due to falling oil prices, leading to a drop in major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [1][3]. Macro Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November increased by 64,000, which appears positive at first glance, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. Additionally, previous months' data was significantly revised downwards, indicating a cooling labor market [4][5]. - Despite the seemingly negative data, market reactions were optimistic, with traders increasing the probability of interest rate cuts in January from 22% to 31%, suggesting a belief that poor economic data could lead to looser monetary policy [4][7]. Tesla's Performance - Tesla's stock price surpassed $490, marking a new all-time high, which reflects strong retail investor sentiment. The rise is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would support further stock market gains [11][12]. - The performance of Tesla is seen as a barometer for retail investor confidence, with the stock's rise indicating that retail investors remain engaged and optimistic about future market conditions [11][12]. Individual Stock Highlights - Broadcom received positive news regarding its collaboration with Apple on a server chip, which is expected to launch in 2027. This partnership is seen as a significant opportunity for Broadcom, especially in the context of the ongoing trend of "de-NVIDIA" in the market [12][15]. - CRWV is highlighted as a stock to avoid due to deteriorating fundamentals, including delays in data center projects and management issues, which have led to a significant drop in its stock price [15]. Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 index is currently at a critical support level around 6700 points, with a balance between bullish and bearish forces. The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase until upcoming major events [16][24]. - The Nasdaq index, while showing some gains, has not regained key moving averages, indicating potential downside risks. A recovery in momentum will require the index to reclaim these averages [18]. Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including CPI and Micron Technology's earnings report, are anticipated to be pivotal for market direction. Micron's performance is particularly crucial for the semiconductor sector, with potential implications for the Nasdaq index [22][24].