KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-17 12:41Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Moutai's quantity control policy has led to a rebound in the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai, which rose from below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan to 1570 yuan per bottle [1] Group 1: Price and Supply Changes - Moutai plans to stop supplying all products to distributors by the end of the year and will reduce the quota for 1-liter Feitian Moutai by 30% and for Zodiac Moutai by 50% by 2026, completely halting the supply of colored glaze Moutai [1] - The wholesale price of She Moutai increased by 110 yuan per bottle to reach 1720 yuan [1] - Following the implementation of the quantity control policy, the market price of Feitian Moutai has risen to between 1650 and 1750 yuan, leading to an increase in sales [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Analyst Insights - The decision to implement quantity control is linked to the recent leadership change at Moutai, with new chairman Chen Hua's policies aimed at stabilizing market prices and managing the company's market value [3] - Analysts suggest that reducing the quota for non-standard products is a structural reform that alleviates financial pressure on distributors and stabilizes wholesale prices [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost demand for Moutai, although sales may not reach previous years' levels due to high personal stockpiling [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Moutai's revenue and net profit growth rates hit a multi-year low in the third quarter of 2025, indicating challenges in meeting growth targets set at the beginning of the year [4] - The proportion of sales during the Spring Festival, which typically accounts for 20%-30% of annual sales, is expected to decrease this year [4]