通货紧缩已经出现？明年起，老百姓不要做这“三件事”

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy is currently in a deflationary cycle, despite expectations of rising prices due to excessive money supply. [1][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - As of November 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, which is twice the GDP size. [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) experienced a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. [1] Group 2: Causes of Deflation - The deflationary cycle is attributed to two main factors: insufficient confidence in future investments and consumption, leading to excessive money supply circulating within the financial system without reaching the goods and asset markets, resulting in price declines. [3] - Additionally, the slowdown or decline in income growth for most residents has led to reduced consumer demand, causing businesses to lower prices to stimulate sales. [3] Group 3: Recommendations for Individuals - Individuals are advised against making hasty investments due to the unfavorable investment environment, which increases the likelihood of losses, especially for those lacking investment knowledge and experience. [5][7] - It is recommended not to resign from stable jobs, as the current economic conditions and rising unemployment make it difficult to find satisfactory employment afterward. [8][10] - Caution is advised for those considering entrepreneurship, as the probability of success is low due to factors such as declining consumer demand, lack of experience, rising operational costs, and competition from e-commerce. [12]