国元国际：给予康哲药业“买入”评级 目标价17.68港元

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guoyuan International highlights that Kangzhe Pharmaceutical (00867) has established a global pipeline of 40 innovative drugs primarily focused on FIC and BIC, with 5 approved innovative drugs accelerating commercial value release, 7 NDA reviews ongoing, and over 10 clinical trials in progress. The oral JAK1 inhibitor Povorcitinib has received breakthrough therapy designation, and a "Buy" rating is given with a target price of HKD 17.68 per share [1]. Group 1: Innovative Drug Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs, with 40 global projects focused on FIC and BIC, and 5 approved innovative drugs accelerating commercial value [2]. - The NDA application for the first-class injectable drug Y-3 has been accepted, which is the world's first brain cell protector developed based on PSD95-nNOS and MPO targets, expected to address both stroke treatment and post-stroke depression and anxiety [2]. - The market potential for injectable Y-3 is estimated at RMB 3 billion [2]. Group 2: Clinical Trials and Market Demand - The oral JAK1 inhibitor Povorcitinib has received breakthrough therapy designation from China's NMPA, targeting adult non-segmental vitiligo, with a large unmet treatment demand in China, where there are approximately 10.3 million vitiligo patients, including 8.2 million with non-segmental vitiligo [2]. - Multiple clinical trials for Povorcitinib are ongoing in various countries, including Phase III trials for non-segmental vitiligo and moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa, as well as a Phase II asthma trial [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 4.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and a net profit of RMB 930 million, up 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - The skin health line generated revenue of RMB 498 million, a significant increase of 104.3%, accounting for 10.7% of the group's drug sales [3]. - The company's brand and innovative products generated a total revenue of RMB 2.9 billion, a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, representing 62.1% of total revenue [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company's performance is expected to recover, with a significant optimization of its product structure focusing on innovative drugs. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 7.86 billion, RMB 8.95 billion, and RMB 10.02 billion, with net profits of RMB 1.667 billion, RMB 1.941 billion, and RMB 2.308 billion respectively [4]. - The target price of HKD 17.68 corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.9 times for 2027, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price [4].