Honda Motor(US:HMC) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-18 04:45Core Viewpoint - The ongoing semiconductor supply crisis, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions surrounding Nexperia, has led Honda to temporarily halt production in Japan and certain Chinese factories, highlighting the persistent impact of the "Nexperia incident" on the automotive industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Honda's Production Impact - Honda plans to suspend automobile production in Japan on January 5 and 6, with its joint venture in China, Guangqi Honda, also set to halt operations from December 29 to January 2 [1]. - The company has revised its sales forecast down from 3.62 million units to 3.34 million units due to the semiconductor shortage caused by Nexperia [2]. - Honda's stock price fell over 3% in Tokyo, reflecting investor concerns about the ongoing supply chain disruptions [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The Dutch government initiated measures against Nexperia, citing governance issues and concerns over the availability of critical chip production capabilities, which led to a significant disruption in the supply chain [3][4]. - Following the Dutch intervention, China imposed export controls on Nexperia, further complicating the supply chain and leading to shortages of essential automotive components [3]. Group 3: Structural Supply Chain Issues - The automotive industry is characterized by a "just-in-time" production model, where the absence of even a single component can halt production lines, amplifying the impact of the semiconductor shortages [4][5]. - The current situation reflects a dual state of "structural surplus and structural shortage" within the automotive semiconductor supply chain, complicating recovery efforts [4]. - Short-term alternatives for semiconductor sourcing are limited due to the need for revalidation and certification of components, which adds to the complexity of the supply chain [5].