XIAOMI(HK:01810) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-18 06:07Core Viewpoint - The Xiaomi SU7, after two years on the market, is approaching a critical turning point in its lifecycle, with sales showing signs of fatigue as it faces increased competition and evolving market demands [1][3]. Sales Performance - The SU7 has achieved cumulative sales of over 250,000 units, maintaining a leading position in the pure electric sedan market, often surpassing Tesla's Model 3 in monthly sales [1]. - However, sales dropped from a peak of 29,000 units per month to 12,500 units in November, indicating a decline in demand [1]. Product Upgrade and Pricing - A new generation of the SU7 is expected to launch in Q2 2026, featuring significant upgrades and a price increase of approximately 20,000 yuan, raising the starting price from 215,900 yuan to around 235,900 yuan [3][4]. - The price increase, while close to 10%, may not necessarily lead to a collapse in sales if the upgrades are perceived as valuable by consumers [6]. Competitive Landscape - The current SU7 model is seen as lagging in product definition compared to competitors, particularly with the adoption of 800V high-voltage platforms by rivals like Zeekr and XPeng [6][8]. - The new model is expected to address these shortcomings by standardizing 800V architecture across all variants and including advanced features like laser radar and high-performance driving assistance capabilities [9][11]. Market Trends and Challenges - The automotive market is experiencing a structural increase in raw material prices, which has a direct impact on profit margins for companies like Xiaomi that have not achieved vertical integration like Tesla or BYD [14]. - The company is responding to market pressures by potentially shifting from a volume-driven strategy to one focused on enhancing vehicle value through upgrades [14]. Product Line Expansion - Xiaomi is also expanding the SU7 product line with a long-wheelbase version (SU7 L) aimed at enhancing rear passenger comfort, alongside new models like the YU9 and YU7 GT to cover various market segments [17]. - This diversification allows the SU7 to focus on a younger demographic interested in technology and driving experience, rather than carrying the entire sales burden alone [17]. Industry Environment - The overall market environment is challenging, with significant declines in retail sales for passenger vehicles, attributed to the withdrawal of purchase tax incentives and consumer hesitance [19]. - Xiaomi's strategy of shortening delivery times and offering flexible options is seen as a defensive measure against slowing demand [19].