KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-18 10:11Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating prices of Moutai have become more volatile than stock trading, with significant price drops and rebounds observed within a short period, indicating a severe imbalance in supply and demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - On December 12, the wholesale price of Moutai fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, reaching 1485 yuan, with original boxes dropping to 1495 yuan, marking a recent low [1]. - Following Moutai's decision to halt shipments to distributors, prices surged on December 13 and 14, with a daily increase of 90 yuan for scattered bottles and 95 yuan for original boxes, but by December 15, prices fell again to 1560 yuan and 1570 yuan respectively [3]. - The price difference exceeded 100 yuan within four days, leaving both consumers and distributors confused [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Issues - The core issue for Moutai is not merely the reduction in shipments but a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, with three main problems identified: excessive inventory, reduced consumer interest, and the collapse of its financial appeal [5][11]. - The average inventory turnover days for the entire liquor industry reached 1424 days by Q3 2025, indicating that products remain unsold for over three years, which is 65% longer than the previous year [5]. - Moutai's production capacity increased by 8% this year, while demand decreased by 12%, leading to a significant oversupply situation [7]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai have diminished, particularly among younger consumers who prefer alternatives like red wine and low-alcohol beverages for social occasions [9]. - Moutai's attempts to appeal to younger demographics through products like ice cream and chocolate have not resulted in sustained interest [9]. - The cultural shift away from high-end banquets and reduced corporate spending has further impacted Moutai's sales [9]. Group 4: Financial Viability and Future Outlook - Moutai's financial model has deteriorated, with many investors now selling off their stock due to declining prices, which were once as high as 3000 yuan per bottle [11][14]. - The current cost line for distributors is approximately 1600 yuan, and prices below 1500 yuan result in losses, prompting distributors to sell off inventory [12]. - Moutai's strategy to control supply may provide temporary relief but is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of excessive inventory and changing consumer preferences [14][15]. Group 5: Long-term Strategies - Moutai must focus on returning to its core identity as a consumable product rather than an investment vehicle, with new product launches aimed at younger consumers [17]. - Stabilizing distributor relationships is crucial, as the total contract liabilities of 20 listed liquor companies amount to 39 billion yuan, indicating ongoing hope among distributors [18]. - The broader economic environment poses significant challenges, with macroeconomic pressures and a decline in high-end dining culture affecting Moutai's recovery prospects [18][19].