COSTA收购案尚未落地，瑞幸又盯上蓝瓶咖啡，算法“镰刀”终于挥向“匠心咖啡”？

Core Viewpoint - Nestlé is planning to sell Blue Bottle Coffee, which it acquired in 2017, to Luckin Coffee, as it struggles with the operational challenges of the brand while seeking to maintain its high-margin consumer goods business [2][4][5]. Group 1: Nestlé's Strategy - Nestlé's decision to sell Blue Bottle is driven by the realization that the brand's expansion has diluted its identity, creating a conflict with the company's growth expectations [3][4]. - The sale involves a strategic separation of the brand from its physical retail operations, allowing Nestlé to retain the brand's intellectual property while offloading the costly and complex retail locations [4][5]. - This divestment is seen as a perfect asset separation for Nestlé, allowing it to focus on its strengths in high-margin consumer products [5]. Group 2: Blue Bottle's Market Performance - Blue Bottle's initial success in China has waned, with a significant decline in consumer interest and foot traffic in its stores, which were once seen as trendy [6][7]. - The brand's pricing strategy has come under scrutiny, as consumers question the value of its offerings compared to local competitors like Manner and Grid Coffee, which provide similar quality at lower prices [7][9]. - As of August 2025, Blue Bottle has only 14 stores in mainland China, a stark contrast to the rapid expansion of competitors, highlighting its struggle to adapt to the local market [9]. Group 3: Luckin Coffee's Ambitions - Luckin Coffee's recent financial performance shows significant growth, with a net revenue of 15.287 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 50.2% year-on-year increase [10]. - The acquisition of Blue Bottle is viewed as a strategic move for Luckin to elevate its brand perception from a budget option to a premium player in the coffee market [12][13]. - Luckin aims to leverage Blue Bottle's established brand recognition in international markets to enhance its global presence and valuation [12][13]. Group 4: Challenges for Luckin Coffee - Despite its rapid growth, Luckin faces challenges related to its brand image, which is often associated with low-cost offerings, limiting its potential in the premium segment [11][12]. - The company's aggressive expansion strategy, including opening new stores near existing ones, has led to dissatisfaction among franchisees, impacting profitability and operational stability [16][17]. - The cultural clash between Luckin's data-driven approach and Blue Bottle's artisanal ethos raises questions about the future integration of the two brands [16][17].