7.1万亿美元期权合约到期，美股“疯狂一日”即将爆发

Economic Indicators - The latest November core CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, marking a new low since 2021 and falling below expectations, indicating a trend of slowing inflation [1] - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, praised the CPI report as "shockingly good," noting that wage growth is outpacing price increases and predicting substantial tax refunds for American taxpayers next year [3][5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hassett suggested that the Federal Reserve has significant room to lower interest rates due to improving supply-side conditions that are expected to suppress inflation in the long term [5] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for aggressive easing by the Fed in 2026 increased, particularly regarding the likelihood of rate cuts in March next year [5] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 faced technical resistance while attempting to breach the 6800-point level, leading to significant volatility and a rapid sell-off triggered by quantitative funds and high-leverage long positions [7][9] - The current market is in a "negative Gamma" zone, where small retreats can lead to systemic sell-offs, emphasizing the need for the index to maintain above 6800 points for stability [9][16] Options Market - A record $7.1 trillion in nominal value of options contracts is set to expire on the upcoming "quadruple witching" day, which typically amplifies market volume and volatility [14] - The dominance of zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options is expected to disrupt true asset pricing, shifting the focus from inflation data to liquidity pressures [16] Meta's AI Strategy - Meta is developing two ambitious AI models, "Mango" for video and "Avocado" for language, with plans for a 2026 release, reflecting a strategic pivot amid a $70 billion capital expenditure [17][19] - The company has shifted its approach from open-source to potentially proprietary models, aiming to establish a competitive edge in AI technology [20][22] - Meta's dual development of Mango and Avocado is seen as a defensive strategy to enhance user engagement and maintain its competitive position against rivals like Google and OpenAI [21][22]