SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-19 03:17Core Insights - The automation market is expected to experience a mild recovery starting in 2025, driven by equipment upgrades and digital transformation policies, with a significant acceleration in domestic equipment localization [1][2] - The industry is projected to witness a "robot IPO" era beginning in 2026, indicating a shift towards large-scale production of automation products [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall automation market demand is set to recover moderately from 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2% in the OEM market during the first three quarters, reversing a three-year downward trend since 2022 [2] - High demand is noted in downstream sectors such as industrial robots, lithium batteries, packaging, and logistics, with new productivity forms like low-altitude and embodied intelligence making significant advancements [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Domestic investment in technology iteration-related equipment is identified as a core structural opportunity, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and electronics, driven by the growth of "AI+" related industries [2] - The automation market in China is expected to see further recovery in 2026, with significant opportunities arising from the expansion of solid-state battery production lines and lithium battery capacity [2] Group 3: Industry Developments - The localization of key manufacturing equipment is accelerating, with the domestic market for variable frequency drives, servo systems, PLCs, and relays projected to grow from 87.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 103.1 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 6% [3] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for humanoid robots, with major companies like Tesla planning to launch mass production of their robots, which will drive the industry towards large-scale manufacturing [4] Group 4: Emerging Sectors - The eVTOL sector is expected to see significant advancements in 2026, with new model certifications anticipated, supported by policy backing and infrastructure development [5] - The global industrial automation market is valued at $240 billion, with domestic companies increasingly penetrating high-end markets in Europe and the U.S., particularly in the AIDC sector [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main lines: leading companies with strategic positioning and scale effects, high-growth companies benefiting from industry growth and localization, and emerging sector champions in high-demand areas like AI data centers [7][8]