关于中金公司(3908.HK)吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券预案的点评:吸并预案公布 一流投行建设加速推进

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the merger and acquisition (M&A) of CICC with Dongxing Securities and China Cinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance the overall strength of the company, with anticipated synergies primarily in expanding the customer base and improving asset efficiency [1][2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CICC with a target price of HKD 27.20, corresponding to a 1.2x price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [1] - The merger is expected to elevate CICC's ranking in the industry from 8th to 3rd or 4th in terms of comprehensive strength, with projected net revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, total assets, and net assets ranking 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 4th respectively post-merger [2] Group 2 - The share exchange plan is based on the average price of the 20 trading days prior to the pricing benchmark, with Dongxing Securities having a 26% premium and no additional fundraising involved [1] - The post-merger shareholder structure will see Central Huijin holding 24.44% of CICC, China Cinda 16.71%, and China Orient along with its concerted parties 8.05%, all committing to a 36-month lock-up period [2] - The merger is expected to enhance the self-operated income ranking to 3rd and improve capital utilization efficiency, with CICC's leverage ratio at 5.4x compared to Dongxing Securities at 3.2x and China Cinda at 3.8x [2]