LBX(SH:603883) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-20 22:42Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is seen as beneficial for domestic consumption and reducing import costs, but there are concerns about calls for a significant appreciation that could harm the economy [1][3][21] Group 1: Economic Impact of RMB Appreciation - The moderate appreciation of the RMB aligns well with the domestic strategy to expand internal demand, leading to lower import costs and increased disposable income for consumers [3][21] - China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, has seen a 3.2% year-on-year increase in crude oil imports, totaling 521.87 million tons in the first eleven months [3] - The reduction in import costs for crude oil and other commodities, such as synthetic fiber and soybeans, alleviates financial pressure on households, allowing for increased spending in sectors like tourism, education, and health [3][4] Group 2: Risks of Significant RMB Appreciation - Experts advocating for a drastic appreciation of the RMB by 50% may overlook the potential negative consequences, such as the risk of economic instability similar to Japan's experience post-Plaza Accord [4][20] - A rapid appreciation could severely impact export-oriented businesses, which typically operate on thin profit margins of 3% to 5%, potentially leading to cash flow issues and the elimination of many small and medium enterprises [17][21] - The argument for significant appreciation based on purchasing power parity is criticized for ignoring the differences in economic structures and cost compositions between countries [12][14][16]