KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-20 23:21Core Viewpoint - The replacement of Feitian Moutai with blueberry juice at the Moutai shareholders' meeting symbolizes a deep crisis in the entire liquor industry, reflecting the impact of new regulations and changing consumer preferences [1][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor industry is experiencing its eighth consecutive year of declining production, with Q1 2025 production at 1.032 million kiloliters, a 7.2% year-on-year decrease [3]. - Compared to the peak production of 13.584 million kiloliters in 2016, current production has shrunk by approximately two-thirds [3]. - 59.7% of liquor companies reported reduced operating profits, and 50.9% experienced declining revenues, with an average inventory turnover period of 900 days [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Major Companies - The top six liquor companies account for over 80% of the overall market revenue and 86% of the profits [6]. - Specific revenue figures for major companies in H1 2025 include: - Guizhou Moutai: 89.389 billion yuan (up 9.1%) - Wuliangye: 52.771 billion yuan (up 4.19%) - Shanxi Fenjiu: 23.96 billion yuan (up 5.354%) - Jiu Gui Jiu: 561 million yuan (down 43.54%) - Jinzhongzi Jiu: 484 million yuan (down 27.47%) - Yanshi Co.: 28 million yuan (down 85.22%) [7]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Issues - As of the end of 2024, the total inventory of listed liquor companies reached 167.863 billion yuan, with Guizhou Moutai holding 54.972 billion yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the total inventory of 20 companies [9]. - 60% of companies face price inversion issues, particularly in the 800-1500 yuan price range, which has become a significant pain point for the industry [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Agencies" prohibits alcohol at official receptions, significantly impacting the industry [12]. - Following the announcement of this policy in May 2025, stock prices of major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, fell sharply, with Moutai's market value dropping below 2 trillion yuan [12]. Group 5: Changing Consumer Demographics - The traditional liquor consumer base is aging, with younger consumers aged 25-35 showing a general aversion to liquor, preferring alternatives like trendy toys and milk tea [14]. - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue reached 13.04 billion yuan, a 106.9% increase, indicating a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional liquor [14]. Group 6: Industry Adaptation Strategies - In response to the crisis, liquor companies are exploring new survival paths, such as Yanghe's collaboration with JD.com to promote 59 yuan light bottle sales [15]. - The best-selling price range in the liquor market has shifted to 100-300 yuan, with companies focusing on lower alcohol content products [15]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need to optimize existing capacity and enhance value rather than expanding production [18].