国元证券：低轨卫星迈入规模化关键期 成本下降驱动应用迸发

Core Insights - The report from Guoyuan Securities highlights that significant optimization in capacity and launch costs is driving a continuous decline in the unit cost of bit transmission, which is expected to accelerate the constellation networking pace and indirectly enhance the operational efficiency of satellite constellations, leading to a surge in downstream service applications [1] Industry Development - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communication is entering a critical phase of large-scale deployment and commercialization, driven by the acceleration of global digitalization, existing coverage gaps in terrestrial communication networks, and the emergence of new application scenarios such as low-altitude economy, oceanic communication, emergency rescue, and wide-area IoT connectivity [2] - Major international constellation plans like Starlink, OneWeb, and Kuiper are now in large-scale networking phases, while China has included satellite internet in its "new infrastructure" initiative, clearly supporting the construction of an independent and controllable LEO constellation system [2] Technological Advancements - The evolution of technology is significantly enhancing system efficiency and reducing costs, with improvements in onboard processing (OBP) capabilities allowing satellites to have stronger data routing and computing functions, thereby reducing reliance on ground stations [3] - The maturity of phased array antenna technology has greatly improved the performance and portability of user terminals, while the widespread use of reusable launch vehicles has alleviated launch bottlenecks, leading to a continuous decline in unit bit transmission costs, establishing an economic foundation for large-scale user access [3] Policy Support - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has explicitly proposed the need to cultivate and grow emerging industries such as the low-altitude economy, with LEO satellite constellation construction included in important policies of multiple countries [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Information and Communication Industry" has already included satellite internet as one of the seven key areas of "new infrastructure," with subsequent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Space Administration steadily advancing the application for satellite frequency orbit resources, system standard formulation, and operational license issuance, creating a clear and certain growth path for the industry chain [4] Industry Chain Dynamics - The alleviation of capacity bottlenecks is expected to benefit the manufacturing sector first, with the latest statistics indicating that ground equipment revenue will account for the highest proportion of global satellite industry revenue in 2024 [5] - As inter-satellite links and other OBP technologies are realized, the reliance of constellations on ground stations is expected to decrease, indirectly compressing satellite operating costs and increasing the revenue share of satellite manufacturing and service sectors, particularly for consumer broadband terminals, IoT terminals, and specialized communication equipment for industries, providing unprecedented market opportunities for domestic companies with core hardware R&D capabilities and large-scale delivery capabilities [5]