美国2026-2028展望：萧条还是繁荣？（英文版）

Group 1 - The UBS report outlines a complex economic outlook for the US from 2026 to 2028, highlighting a narrow growth foundation primarily driven by artificial intelligence, while facing challenges such as tariff pressures, persistent inflation, and a weak labor market [1][2][3] - Economic growth is heavily reliant on two main pillars: stock market wealth driven by AI and investments in software and related technologies, raising concerns about sustainability and risk if the stock market experiences a significant downturn [2][10] - The report indicates that a significant portion of the economy is in recession, with declines in residential investment, non-residential construction, and government spending, suggesting a precarious economic foundation [11][12] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 will be influenced by conflicting forces, including tariff policies expected to reduce real GDP growth by approximately 0.8 percentage points, while the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) is projected to provide a 0.45 percentage point boost [3][12] - Tariff-related costs are anticipated to keep core PCE inflation elevated, posing challenges for monetary policy makers [3][12] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with job growth slowing and a decline in employment outside of healthcare and social assistance, leading to deteriorating household perceptions of job security [4][14] - Despite current challenges, there are long-term structural improvements expected due to reduced drag from population aging and potential productivity gains from AI investments [4][35][36] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult situation balancing low inflation targets and a weak labor market, with expectations of interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026, but facing resistance due to persistent inflation [5][15][24] - The report suggests that the Fed's independence may be impacted by personnel changes and the need to address tariff-related inflation while supporting economic growth [5][24] Group 5 - The report concludes that the US economy is at a critical transition point, with narrow growth drivers, policy challenges, and high inflation, indicating that navigating these issues will be essential for achieving broader economic stability [6][10][36]