KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-22 07:23Core Viewpoint - The market wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has fallen below the official guidance price for the first time, leading to significant losses for speculators who previously viewed it as a guaranteed investment opportunity [1][4]. Price Fluctuation - As of December 19, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai reached 1545 yuan, down from 1550 yuan the previous day, and close to the official guidance price of 1499 yuan [4]. - The price has decreased by approximately one-third from the beginning of the year when it was around 2100 to 2200 yuan per bottle [4]. - Speculators who purchased at higher prices are facing substantial losses, with some reporting losses of nearly 500,000 yuan per batch, equivalent to the cost of a luxury car [4][5]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in prices has led to a "bargain-hunting" mentality among some consumers, with purchases being made at prices previously considered unattainable, such as 1600 yuan per bottle [5]. - The actual opening rate of Moutai has increased, indicating a shift from being viewed primarily as an investment to being consumed as a product [5]. - Different consumer groups are reacting differently to price changes, with stable demand for high-end business banquets but a noticeable decrease in investment purchases and gift demand [5]. Company Response - In response to market fluctuations, Guizhou Moutai has implemented measures including a control policy that involves suspending certain product shipments and reducing non-standard product supply [7]. - The company is shifting from a quota-based distribution model to a more demand-driven approach to alleviate inventory pressure on distributors [7]. - Moutai is also exploring new consumer scenarios, such as developing small bottle products and expanding into wedding markets, to attract genuine consumers rather than investors [7]. Market Outlook - Industry opinions on future price trends are mixed, with some expecting a slight rebound before the Spring Festival, while others predict prices may stabilize in the range of 1500 to 1800 yuan [7]. - Analysts believe that the rational return of Moutai prices is beneficial for the sustainable development of the industry, as it encourages consumption rather than hoarding [7].