PETROCHINA(SH:601857) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-22 14:05Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber from the United States, South Korea, and the European Union, with the measures set to expire for imports from the UK on December 20, 2025 [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The anti-dumping tax rates are set at 214.9%-222% for U.S. companies, 12.5%-24.5% for South Korean companies, and 14.7%-31.7% for EU companies [1] - The domestic supply structure for EPDM rubber has been restructured since the implementation of the anti-dumping policy in 2020, allowing current domestic and imported sources to meet downstream demand [1][7] Group 2: Industry Performance - The operating load rate of domestic EPDM rubber enterprises increased from 51.47% in 2020 to a projected 78.58% by 2025 [7] - The domestic EPDM rubber industry has seen significant growth in competitiveness over the past five years [8] Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - In 2020, the main sources of EPDM rubber imports to China were the U.S. (52,900 tons), South Korea (42,500 tons), and the EU (19,400 tons), accounting for 61% of total imports [9] - By 2024, imports from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and Japan are projected to be 66,700 tons, 65,300 tons, and 14,700 tons, respectively, making up 88% of total imports [12] Group 4: Production and Demand Trends - China's EPDM rubber production is expected to grow from 278,300 tons in 2021 to 326,300 tons in 2025, reflecting a 17.25% increase [13] - The automotive sector's consumption of EPDM rubber is projected to reach 223,000 tons by 2025, indicating a stable demand structure in downstream applications [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The EPDM rubber industry is anticipated to shift from scale competition to performance customization, with technological innovation and global integration becoming core competitive advantages [14] - The continuation of anti-dumping duties is based on domestic companies' concerns about potential dumping from the U.S., South Korea, and the EU, which could harm the domestic industry [15]