踏雪追光，算力不眠——通信ETF及半导体设备ETF大涨点评

Market Overview - The market opened high and continued to rise, with total trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen reaching 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.23% [1] Company Performance - Micron Technology reported its FY26 Q1 earnings, with revenue of $13.643 billion, exceeding market expectations of $12.95 billion and its own previous forecast of $12.5 billion. The revenue growth was driven by price increases, improved cost execution, and a shift towards higher-value products. The DRAM segment, which accounts for 79% of revenue, saw a year-over-year growth of 69%, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing by 20% quarter-over-quarter. NAND revenue also increased by 22% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] Capital Expenditure - Micron raised its capital expenditure guidance for FY26 to $20 billion from the previous estimate of $18 billion, reflecting ongoing strong demand in the AI sector. The company indicated that storage supply will remain significantly short, potentially lasting until 2026 and beyond [2] Industry Trends - Fiber optic prices in China have been rising since Q3, driven by strong demand and tight overall supply. The demand is fueled by AI needs in North America and anticipated increases in fiber demand by 2027. Additionally, data center interconnect (DCI) is expected to contribute significantly to demand [4] Economic Policy Impact - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. This move alleviated short-term concerns about the impact of Japanese rate hikes on global market liquidity [4] Future Outlook - The communication sector remains robust, with a projected doubling of the optical module market growth by 2026. The demand is driven by rapid growth in GPU and ASIC shipments, leading to increased networking needs. The upcoming product iterations from Nvidia and Google are expected to further boost demand for high-end optical modules [5] ETF Insights - The communication ETF includes over 48% optical modules and 9% fiber optics, reflecting the fundamentals of North American AI progress. The semiconductor equipment ETF is also expected to benefit from Micron's increased capex guidance, indicating a potential new wave of capacity expansion in the storage sector [7][6]