從認購證單日漲19%說起：如何利用衍生工具參與石藥短期行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and market outlook of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093), highlighting the divergence in institutional views regarding the company's short-term operational challenges and long-term business development (BD) potential [4][5]. Technical Analysis - CSPC's stock price recently recovered above the 10-day moving average (approximately 7.75 HKD) and stabilized above the 30-day moving average (approximately 7.74 HKD), indicating a strengthening short-term momentum [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 61, suggesting overbought pressure, which may lead to a technical correction to digest profit-taking and build new momentum [1]. - The stock is facing a key resistance level at 8.49 HKD; a successful breakout could target 9.03 HKD, while support is at 7.79 HKD, with a critical level at 7.47 HKD [1]. Market Perspectives - There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding CSPC's future, with optimistic views focusing on the company's sustainable growth drivers through BD transactions [4]. - UBS raised its target price to 10 HKD, citing untapped potential in BD transactions and effective sales expense control [4]. - Conversely, Daiwa downgraded CSPC from "Hold" to "Sell," arguing that the stock price reflects optimistic expectations for BD transactions while the core pharmaceutical sales face growth pressures [5]. Derivative Instruments - In light of the stock's critical resistance levels and market divergence, warrants and bull/bear certificates offer investors flexible tools to respond to short-term volatility without large direct stock purchases [6]. - Recent performance of derivative products shows that when CSPC's stock rose by 3.00% over two trading days, linked warrants experienced price increases of 19%, 14%, and 12% respectively, demonstrating the leverage effect of these instruments [6]. Product Selection Guidance - Investors optimistic about breaking the 8.49 HKD resistance may consider higher strike price warrants, such as those from Morgan Stanley and Société Générale, which offer relatively high leverage [9]. - For those anticipating a potential pullback, Société Générale's bear certificate with a redemption price set at 9.5 HKD provides a higher leverage option for bearish strategies [9].