HAIDILAO(HK:06862) Ge Long Hui·2025-12-23 05:22Company Overview - The company is expected to maintain stable same-store sales growth in 2H25, with cost optimization performing better than anticipated, resulting in resilient overall profitability [1] - The company continues to implement its "different Haidilao" strategy to enhance same-store performance, including the establishment of themed stores and product innovation [1] Performance Commentary - The company anticipates a quarter-on-quarter improvement in table turnover rates in 2H25, with year-on-year rates remaining stable [1] - Despite a challenging dining environment, the company benefits from a lower base and effective operational adjustments, estimating a quarter-on-quarter increase in table turnover rates and stable average spending per customer [1] - Cost optimization is better than expected, with overall profitability remaining resilient; however, gross margin is expected to decline year-on-year due to rising raw material costs and lower margins on fresh-cut products [1] New Brand Development Strategy - The company is optimizing its new brand development strategy, introducing a top-down management approach alongside the existing bottom-up proposal system [2] - New brands such as Yansheng BBQ and Juhigh Self-service Hotpot are expected to expand significantly, with plans to open 80-90 new locations for the BBQ brand in 2025 [2] - The company remains cautious about expanding its main brand, projecting a low single-digit percentage growth in new store openings [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to better-than-expected cost optimization, the company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 7% to CNY 4.01 billion and CNY 4.71 billion, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 19x for 2025 and 16x for 2026, with a target price increase of 6% to HKD 17, implying a 15% upside potential [2]