麦格理：予滔搏“跑赢大市”评级 目标价降至3.9港元

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie has downgraded the target price for Tmall (06110) by 5% to HKD 3.9, maintaining an "outperform" rating due to weak demand impacting revenue forecasts and increasing expense ratios [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Tmall's net profit in FY2026 has been reduced by 4.2%, while the FY2027 forecast has been cut by 3.9% [1] - Revenue for the second half of FY2026 is expected to decline by 10.8%, with net profit projected to increase by 12% to RMB 459 million, indicating a year-on-year net profit decrease of 3% [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Sales in the third quarter of FY2026 have decreased in line with management expectations, remaining consistent with the second quarter [1] - The company believes that foot traffic in offline stores continues to be under pressure, with weak demand persisting into December [1] Group 3: Brand and Market Dynamics - Nike, Tmall's main brand, has indicated that a reset in China will take time, and Tmall is closely collaborating with Nike to build a foundation for long-term growth [1] - Ongoing discounts in online channels may lead to higher growth in the third quarter compared to offline retail channels, resulting in greater discounting across the channel mix [1] Group 4: Margin and Cost Control - Despite the ongoing discounts, the negative impact is believed to be diminishing as the year-on-year change in offline retail discounts has narrowed [1] - Cost control measures are expected to continue alleviating pressure on gross margins in the second half of FY2026 [1]