又有大佬力挺白酒了！

Group 1: Overall Consumption Industry Insights - The consumption industry has its own cyclical规律 that is not influenced by economic growth rates [3][4] - The past 30-40 years in China have seen a modernization process that occurs in new cycles every decade, with only a few companies successfully navigating these cycles [4] - The current phase from 2022 onwards is characterized as a period of restructuring and breaking through in the consumption industry, with a shift in real estate and population dynamics [4] Group 2: Insights on the Liquor Industry - The liquor industry operates on a ten-year cycle influenced by policy, economy, and industry factors, with significant downturns during peak periods [5][6] - Despite a decline in overall demand, leading companies in the liquor sector are expected to adapt and regain market share due to their resilient business models [6][7] - The industry is anticipated to enter a proactive adjustment phase by the second half of next year, with stabilization in wholesale prices [7][8] Group 3: Consumer Goods Trends - In the fast-moving consumer goods sector, the gap in revenue and profitability between the top two companies has widened, indicating increased industry concentration and stability among leading firms [9] - For durable consumer goods like automobiles and home appliances, there is a trend of manufacturing in China while design and marketing are increasingly handled overseas, leading to strong performance in international markets [9] - The service consumer goods sector is shifting from serving manufacturers to focusing on consumer needs, creating opportunities for companies that can meet broad consumer demands and provide unique experiences [9] Group 4: Long-term Value in Consumer Goods - The absolute value of consumer goods is largely independent of short-term performance fluctuations, with long-term value being the core focus for investment [10] - The cash flow discount model indicates that recent performance contributes minimally to overall value, emphasizing the importance of long-term sustainability and stability in investment decisions [10]