专访兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委：多措并举推动城乡居民增收，“投资于人”趋势将加强

Core Insights - The central economic work conference has prioritized the "Urban and Rural Residents' Income Increase Plan" as a key task to strengthen domestic demand and build a robust domestic market [2][3] - The plan aims to effectively boost residents' income, thereby enhancing consumption capacity and expanding domestic demand, which is crucial for the internal economic cycle [2][4] Group 1: Policy Significance - The introduction of a dedicated income increase plan marks a significant shift from previous policies that focused primarily on industrial or supply-side planning [3] - The plan sets clear medium- to long-term goals, linking labor remuneration to productivity, which is expected to stabilize prices in the long run [3] Group 2: Relationship Between Income and Consumption - Increasing residents' income is essential for supporting consumption, which is a fundamental aspect of expanding domestic demand [4] - The average wage growth for urban non-private and private sector employees is projected to be 2.8% and 1.7% respectively in 2024, indicating a decline in income growth [4] Group 3: Differentiated Income Increase Strategies - The income structure shows that wage and operational income account for over 70% of total income, necessitating targeted employment policies to support youth and other key demographics [6] - Fiscal policies should enhance transfer income, which constitutes about 18% of disposable income, through measures like family-based income tax assessments and increased social security benefits [6] Group 4: Specific Pathways for Different Demographics - For agricultural workers, raising the minimum purchase price for grain can stabilize income, as historical data shows a positive correlation between agricultural income and grain prices [7] - For stable employment groups, a dynamic adjustment mechanism for minimum wage standards is essential to ensure fair income distribution [7] - The plan emphasizes the inclusion of gig economy workers in minimum wage protections and the establishment of a comprehensive social security network for unemployed individuals [8]