禾赛-W(02525.HK)深度研究报告:激光为炬 照见智驾与端侧AI的感知基石
HESAI-WHESAI-W(HK:02525) Ge Long Hui·2025-12-23 10:35

Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology is a leading global developer and manufacturer of LiDAR, with significant growth in delivery volumes and profitability expected in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2014, Hesai Technology went public on NASDAQ in 2023 and plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2025 [1]. - The company has developed eight product series covering ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics markets [1]. - LiDAR delivery volume is projected to grow from 4,000 units in 2020 to 502,000 units in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1.5 million units in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 260 million yuan, marking a historical high, with annual net profit guidance raised to 350-450 million yuan [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its first full-year Non-GAAP profitability in 2024, with positive operating and net cash flow [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.03 billion, 4.18 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 46%, 38%, and 39% respectively [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $9 billion by 2030 and $14.8 billion by 2035 [2]. - The penetration rate of LiDAR in the domestic market is anticipated to reach 9.0% by 2025, with a projected installation volume of 2.5 million units [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the gradual implementation of L2+/L3/L4 regulations, which will likely enhance LiDAR penetration rates [1]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - The company has strong technical barriers, being the first to successfully apply chip solutions in both transmission and reception modules, and is the only fully self-researched LiDAR company globally [2]. - Manufacturing capabilities include a fully automated production line with a 100% automation rate in core processes, allowing for rapid product iteration and high-quality mass production [3]. - The company has established strong customer relationships, with major partnerships in both the ADAS and robotics sectors, including collaborations with leading automotive manufacturers and Robotaxi companies [3]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue capturing market share domestically and internationally, with the robotics LiDAR sector anticipated to become a significant growth driver [4]. - The target market capitalization is set at 33.4 billion yuan with a target price of 235.93 HKD, reflecting a 35% upside potential [4].