?2026年“AI牛市叙事”的暗雷：美国科技巨头们的“折旧把戏”

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the depreciation schedules of AI infrastructure among major U.S. tech companies raises concerns for investors as they approach 2026, suggesting potential risks in the AI investment narrative [1][4]. Group 1: Accounting Practices and Market Impact - Historical accounting scandals have led to skepticism among investors regarding the reliability of financial statements, particularly in the context of major tech companies [2]. - Misleading but legal financial disclosures pose significant risks, as discrepancies between reported profits and underlying economic realities can lead to substantial stock price declines, especially for large-cap companies [3][11]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which include Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, have significantly influenced the S&P 500 index, accounting for approximately 35% of its weight [3]. Group 2: Concerns Over Depreciation Practices - A recent tweet from a prominent short-seller has sparked discussions about the depreciation practices of major tech firms, raising fears of an impending AI bubble burst [4][5]. - Analysts from major financial institutions express growing skepticism about the high valuations of tech stocks and the returns from substantial AI investments, suggesting a shift in focus towards traditional sectors [5]. - Nvidia, as a leading AI chip manufacturer, is under scrutiny for potentially overstating its profitability through extended depreciation periods, which could mislead investors about its financial health [6][7]. Group 3: Implications of Depreciation on Financial Reporting - The adjustment of depreciation schedules does not create real economic value but merely alters reported profits, impacting metrics like earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios [8][9]. - The practice of extending asset lifespans can make financial statements appear more favorable, but it does not enhance actual cash flows or shareholder value [10][11]. - The ongoing debate about depreciation practices may lead investors to reassess the actual profitability of these tech companies, potentially triggering market corrections in an already high-valuation environment [11].