国金证券证券业2026年策略：境内韧性增强 境外布局深化

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector's performance and valuation are significantly mismatched, with resilience in the capital market and deepening international business layouts supporting valuation recovery [1] Group 1: 2025 Review - The brokerage sector has seen a 0% increase year-to-date (as of the end of November), underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 16% and 15% respectively [2] - In Q1-Q3 2025, listed brokerages reported a 62% year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by substantial growth in brokerage and investment income, with annualized ROE rising to 7.5% [2] - Policy focus this year has been on serving the real economy and benefiting investors, with reforms aimed at transitioning the industry from scale to efficiency and returns [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - Theme 1: The migration of household deposits and long-term investments is expected to enhance market activity, benefiting brokerage and margin financing businesses, with market transaction volumes and margin financing balances likely to remain high [3] - Theme 2: Increased resilience and reduced volatility in the capital market are expected to strengthen profit-making effects, with investment returns likely to remain stable or slightly improve, as brokerages actively seize opportunities in the equity market [3] - Theme 3: Direct financing and support for innovative enterprises will create opportunities in investment banking, with brokerages playing a crucial role in facilitating financing for innovative companies [3] - Theme 4: Mergers among brokerages and the creation of top-tier investment banks will optimize the industry landscape and enhance internationalization, with regulatory support likely to sustain consolidation efforts [3]