东兴证券：政策、技术、需求三重驱动 AI成计算机投资核心主线

Core Viewpoint - The investment in the computer industry should focus on the three-dimensional framework of "fundamentals, cost-effectiveness, and attractiveness," with artificial intelligence (AI) as the core theme of the technology cycle, driven by policy support, technological evolution, and demand release, forming a "multi-dimensional resonance" [1][3]. Industry Review - As of December 16, 2025, the Shenwan Computer Index has increased by 17.07%, slightly lower than the CSI 300 (+17.72%) and the CSI 1000 (+23.88%), ranking 14th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, indicating a mid-level overall performance [2]. - The sector exhibited high volatility compared to the market average, reflecting strong elasticity, with mid-cap stocks (market cap of 10 billion to 20 billion) showing an average increase of 40.64%, significantly outperforming other market cap segments [2]. - The institutional holding ratio is approximately 2.16%, with an underweight ratio of -2.52%, indicating a low level but a stabilization of the downward trend, suggesting potential for recovery in allocation [2]. Industry Outlook - The investment in the computer industry should be based on the three-dimensional framework of "fundamentals, cost-effectiveness, and attractiveness," with AI remaining the core theme of the technology cycle [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "technological self-reliance," providing strong support for AI, "new productivity," and trusted computing [3]. - The global focus of AI development is shifting from training to inference, with Gartner's 2025 technology maturity curve indicating that edge AI is expected to mature within two years [3]. Demand Side - The global token call volume has surged, with leading model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic experiencing rapid revenue growth, and cloud vendors' AI-related revenue increasing by over 20% year-on-year [4]. - The demand for domestic intelligent computing centers is projected to grow from 2016 MW in 2024 to 9480 MW in 2027, with a CAGR of 67.5%, indicating continuous infrastructure investment [4]. Investment Strategy - Focus on AI as the main line, with attention to the recovery of trusted computing and structural opportunities in emerging/future industries [5]. - On the AI computing side, attention should be paid to domestic AI chip manufacturers (e.g., Haiguang Information, Cambricon) and AI servers [5]. - The trusted computing industry is expected to reach a scale of 2.34 trillion yuan by 2025, with significant growth potential [5].