高盛：我们正处于周期“乐观阶段”！预测2026年全球股市回报13%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team indicates that global equity markets are in a typical "optimism phase," with the bull market expected to broaden by 2026, despite lower expected returns compared to 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The weighted price return for global equity markets is projected to be 13% in 2026, with a total return of 15% including dividends, building on a strong performance in 2025 [1]. - The market has shown significant recovery since April, with major U.S. indices rebounding nearly 45% from their lows [1][6]. - The current bull market is shifting from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, with geographic diversification becoming evident as most major stock markets are expected to outperform U.S. equities in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market is currently characterized by record concentration at national, industry, and individual stock levels, making diversification particularly urgent for 2026 [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that the final year of a market cycle often sees significant price surges, raising the risk of a bubble, especially if speculative behavior is driven by AI narratives [5]. - The report highlights that the recovery path has been tumultuous, with significant downturns earlier in the year due to tariff concerns and the "DeepSeek" effect on the tech sector [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the necessity of diversification across regions, styles, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns [8][11]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on emerging markets, combining growth and value stocks, and leveraging capital expenditures in traditional sectors benefiting from AI developments [11].