英伟达H200重返中国：精心计算的“次优解”博弈

Core Insights - Nvidia plans to deliver AI chip H200 to Chinese customers by mid-February 2026, marking its first official permission to supply high-performance AI products to approved clients in China since the U.S. tightened export controls in October 2023 [2][3] - The H200 chip, which offers a performance increase of 6.7 times compared to the previous H20 model, is seen as a strategic compromise in the ongoing U.S.-China tech rivalry, providing a temporary boost to Nvidia's performance while also serving as a catalyst for China's domestic chip innovation [3][5] Nvidia's Market Strategy Evolution - Over the past three years, Nvidia's supply strategy for the Chinese market has gradually retreated, starting with the ban on A100/H100 exports in September 2022, followed by the introduction of lower-performance models like A800/H800 and H20, which faced criticism for their limited capabilities [4] - The introduction of the H200 chip is viewed as a nuanced move to fill a market gap while adhering to U.S. government restrictions on more advanced chips like Blackwell and Rubin [5][6] Implications for the Industry - The limited return of the H200 chip is expected to have significant short-term impacts on Chinese GPU and chip manufacturers, pushing them towards innovation and domestic alternatives [6][7] - Companies like Baidu and Zhipu AI are already adopting a mixed training model using both Nvidia and domestic chips, indicating a shift in strategy to mitigate reliance on foreign technology [6][7] Nvidia's Balancing Act - Nvidia's actions reflect a balancing act between maintaining revenue from the Chinese market, which accounted for $5.4 billion in Q3 2025, and navigating geopolitical risks [7] - The H200's return is seen as a strategic signal that highlights the need for China to develop its own technology solutions rather than relying on external sources [6][7] Recommendations for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are advised to adhere strictly to national security reviews when procuring H200 chips and to diversify their technology sources to avoid over-reliance on a single supplier [8] - There is a call for increased investment in software ecosystems and the formation of domestic alliances to enhance bargaining power and share technological advancements [8]