KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-24 13:27Core Viewpoint - The significant event in the 2025 liquor market is the drastic price reduction of Moutai, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai dropping from over 3000 yuan in 2022 to below 1500 yuan [2][4] Price Trends - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has been on a downward trend, breaking key psychological price points, including 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan, eventually falling below 1500 yuan by mid-December [5][6] - The price decline represents a drop of over 35% from the beginning of the year when the boxed Feitian Moutai was around 2300 yuan per bottle [6] Market Dynamics - The price drop has led to significant pressure on distributors and collectors, with some expressing that they cannot sustain their businesses [7] - Despite the price decline, Moutai Group has maintained stability, with direct sales increasing from 13.5% in 2020 to 46.8% in the first half of 2025, supported by the i Moutai platform generating 10.76 billion yuan in revenue [7] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai reported total revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% [8] - However, the direct sales channel faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 14.87% in the third quarter, and i Moutai revenue dropping by 57.24% [8] Inventory and Production - Moutai is facing unprecedented inventory pressure, with total social inventory estimated at 120-220 million bottles, equivalent to 2-3 times annual sales [14] - The company is advancing its production capacity expansion plan, with a total investment of 15.516 billion yuan aimed at increasing actual production capacity by 35.04% [13] Market Position - Moutai holds a dominant position in the high-end liquor market, with a market share increase from 45% in 2020 to 53.2% in the first half of 2025, and a staggering 62% share in the market above 1000 yuan [14] - Despite the price drop, Moutai's cultural significance and institutional demand remain strong, ensuring its status as a staple in key social scenarios [10][11] Future Outlook - The price decline is viewed as a necessary correction to eliminate speculation and reinforce the brand's value, with expectations for a new growth cycle as consumption scenarios recover and inventory is digested [15]