KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-24 15:50Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Moutai prices reflects a complex interplay of market speculation, upcoming events, and supply constraints, indicating a potential shift in the industry dynamics as traditional consumption patterns evolve [2][4][6]. Price Movements - On December 24, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Feitian Moutai rose to 1600 RMB per bottle, an increase of 40 RMB from the previous day, while the 24-year variant reached 1630 RMB, up by 30 RMB [2][3]. - The price of the "Snake Moutai" jumped from 1770 RMB to 2000 RMB in a single day, marking a 13% increase, which has surprised many in the market [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations are attributed to the upcoming distributor conference on December 28, where new product strategies may be announced, alongside a supply tightening due to Moutai's decision to halt product shipments to distributors [6][8]. - The market has seen a rebound in prices, with ordinary Feitian Moutai recovering from below the official price of 1499 RMB to a range of 1650-1750 RMB [4][6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai reported total revenue of 1309.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with core product sales showing strong performance [8][9]. - Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1105.14 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.28% growth, while series liquor revenue declined to 178.84 billion RMB due to product line adjustments [9]. Strategic Transformation - Moutai is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on three core products: Moutai 1935, Feitian Moutai, and Premium Moutai, targeting different price segments [10][11]. - The company is shifting from a channel-centric approach to a consumer-centric model, aiming to connect with broader emotional and daily life scenarios [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The current price decline and slowing growth are seen as part of a necessary "value reconstruction" process for Moutai and the broader liquor industry, moving away from speculative practices towards genuine value creation [21]. - The evolving consumer base, particularly younger generations, will play a crucial role in determining future market dynamics and competitive positioning [21].