滔搏(06110.HK)：3QFY26符合公司预期 后续展望审慎

Company Performance - The company reported a total sales decline in retail and wholesale business by high single digits year-on-year for 3QFY26, with direct store gross sales area decreasing by 1.3% compared to the end of August [1] - The performance in 3QFY26 was in line with the company's expectations, reflecting weak terminal demand in the sports footwear and apparel market [1] - Retail channels outperformed wholesale, with offline channels showing slight improvement compared to 1HFY26 due to a low base [1] Inventory and Discounts - The company effectively managed the sales rhythm of new and old products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in total inventory by the end of November while maintaining good turnover efficiency [1] - Retail discounts deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels and promotional environment, although the rate of deepening narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1] Management Outlook - Since December, demand has continued to fluctuate, with management maintaining a cautious outlook due to weather variations and holiday timing issues [1] - Management emphasized the importance of discount and healthy operational management, acknowledging challenges in achieving the annual performance guidance, but expects better results from cost optimization in 2HFY26 [1] - The company plans to continue collaborating with key brands to optimize the market environment and actively expand into running and outdoor segments, aiming to become a one-stop operational partner for brands in the Chinese market [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak demand and ongoing adjustments from key brands, the company has lowered its FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 4% and 13% to 0.20 and 0.23 HKD respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to 14 and 12 times FY26/27 P/E, with a target price reduction of 7% to 3.88 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [2]