滔搏(06110.HK)：Q3销售仍有波动 关注品牌伙伴去库和上新节奏

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in sales across various channels, with offline sales under pressure due to store closures and a fluctuating consumer environment, while e-commerce is expected to continue its growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In FY2026Q3, the company's total sales (including retail and wholesale) decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with offline sales facing challenges due to store closures and reduced foot traffic [1]. - The number of offline stores decreased by 332 to 4,688 by the end of FY2026H1, leading to a 13.4% year-on-year decline in gross sales area and a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter decline [1]. - The company anticipates that the net store closures in FY2026H2 will decrease compared to FY2026H1, improving the average quality of stores after the exit of inefficient locations [1]. Group 2: E-commerce and Brand Strategy - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce sales, leveraging its strong operational capabilities and enhancing its online presence through various platforms such as Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and WeChat Mini Programs [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its brand presence in the outdoor and running segments, collaborating with brands like Norda, Soar, Ciele, and Norr na, and launching the running ecosystem brand Ektos [2]. - Ektos was showcased at the Shanghai Marathon, attracting attention from the running community, indicating a strategic move to meet diverse consumer needs [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to see a revenue decline of 7% and a net profit decrease of approximately 4% for FY2026, influenced by a volatile consumer environment and inventory management challenges faced by brands like Nike [2]. - The company’s main brand, Adidas, showed a 6% revenue growth in the Greater China region on a currency-neutral basis for the period of July to September 2025, while Nike's revenue in the same region declined by 16% [3]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.229 billion, 1.379 billion, and 1.533 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with a current price corresponding to a FY2026 PE ratio of 14 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].