滔搏(06110.HK)：三季度零售下滑高单位数 静待NIKE大中华区调整效果

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the retail performance of the company has declined in FY25/26 Q3, with total retail sales (including retail and wholesale) experiencing a high single-digit year-on-year decrease, which aligns with expectations [1] - As of November 30, 2025, the company's direct store gross sales area decreased by 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a slowing pace of store closures expected in FY26 compared to FY25 [1] - Nike's collaboration with distributors is expected to alleviate pressure and increase revenue for the company, with initiatives including inventory clearance, more precise consumer segmentation, stronger brand storytelling, and enhanced visual merchandising to restore profitability growth in the Greater China region [1] Group 2 - The company is gradually restoring its core international brand momentum and diversifying its portfolio through deep collaborations with leading brands like Nike and Adidas, which are expected to drive performance growth [2] - The opening of exclusive Adidas stores and the new CEO of Nike are anticipated to provide more brand support policies for third-party distributors, benefiting the company's future development [2] - Recent introductions of new brands such as Soar and NORRONA are expected to broaden the customer base and create new growth opportunities for the company [2] Group 3 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.287 billion yuan, 1.479 billion yuan, and 1.684 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, representing year-on-year growth of 0.09%, 14.91%, and 13.88% respectively [3] - The company's advantages in distribution channels, brand resources, customer loyalty, and digital management, along with the gradual recovery of major agency brands and the potential of new agency brands, support a "buy" rating [3]