Company Dynamics - The company is expected to achieve relatively stable performance growth despite the decline in delivery subsidies, with a focus on testing new product categories such as breakfast items and the development potential of brands like Lucky Coffee and Fulu Family [1] - The company estimates significant year-on-year growth in single-store revenue for Q3, while Q4 may see a decline in same-store sales growth due to reduced delivery subsidies, with brands showing varied performance [1] - The company is optimistic about its ability to counter the impact of subsidy reductions through product innovation, offline marketing, and mini-program traffic, maintaining a stable overall pricing system [1] New Brand Development Potential - Lucky Coffee has strengthened its fruit and coffee product innovation and introduced store opening subsidy policies, with over 10,000 signed stores globally as of November 24, and more than 8,000 actual operating stores, predominantly in third-tier cities [2] - The company has announced the acquisition of a 53% stake in Fulu Family, which focuses on high-cost performance fresh beer, estimating annual sales per store at 500,000 to 600,000 yuan, with plans to introduce a signing subsidy policy in Q1 2026 [2] - The company is steadily expanding overseas, with Lucky Coffee's first overseas store opening in Malaysia on August 21, and plans for franchise expansion in Hong Kong and Macau, alongside the opening of its first store in Los Angeles [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts of 5.93 billion yuan for 2025 and 6.74 billion yuan for 2026, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 26x for 2025 and 22x for 2026 [3] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 555 HKD, corresponding to P/E ratios of 33x for 2025 and 28x for 2026, indicating an upside potential of 28% [3]
蜜雪集团(02097.HK)：主品牌稳健增长 关注新品牌发展潜力