南华期货戴一帆：能化板块明年或迎“降波之年”

Group 1 - The chemical market is experiencing its worst sentiment in nearly seven to eight years, with expectations for 2026 indicating a continued oversupply and a potential decline in price volatility [1] - The chemical market is projected to face a "downward trend" in 2025, with excess pressure from industry expansion becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year [1] - Energy prices, including crude oil, ethane, and propane, have not yet found a bottom, and coal price support has weakened after a rebound [1] Group 2 - The methanol market is expected to normalize due to changes in logistics, with limited domestic supply increases but significant impacts from foreign production on port operations [2] - The polyester industry chain maintains optimistic demand expectations, with a potential increase in operating levels in 2026 and a recovery in profitability, particularly for ethylene glycol [2] - PVC faces historically high inventory issues, with prices dropping below historical records, and the main drivers in 2026 will come from capacity reductions in domestic and foreign supply [2] Group 3 - The main uncertainties for 2026 are related to "anti-involution" and "dual control," with the overall chemical sector lacking sufficient demand and driving forces, leading to a likely decrease in price volatility [3]