CGS(SH:601881) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-25 00:45Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is shifting its monetary policy focus from promoting further declines in social financing costs to maintaining them at low levels, due to constraints from interest rate comparisons [1] - The PBOC's monetary control will transition from a dual approach of quantity and price control to a primary focus on price control, emphasizing the need for a smooth market interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [1] - The recent increase in the 10-year government bond yield to approximately 1.85% imposes constraints on further declines in social financing costs, which are influenced by the relationships between different risk interest rates, bank asset and liability rates, and yields on various asset types [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy outlook suggests that the first quarter will see a combination of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions, with a potential 50 basis points RRR cut expected to release around 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [2] - Structural interest rate cuts are anticipated to be more targeted, focusing on financing needs in key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - A comprehensive interest rate cut is expected to be contingent on external and internal stability, with potential triggers including increased structural unemployment and risks in the real estate and financial markets, leading to an estimated total policy rate reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [2]