方正证券：电力行业β偏弱 寻觅结构性α

Group 1: Thermal Power - The current year-end electricity price negotiation period is seeing regions like Guangdong, Anhui, Hebei, and Shaanxi implement price difference restriction policies, which are expected to support long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 [1] - The downward pressure on long-term contract electricity prices in 2025 has gained attention from higher authorities, and policies to curb irrational competition are being introduced, which may alleviate the most significant downside risks [1] - The "anti-involution" policy in coal supply is strengthening supply constraints, leading the industry to transition from a phase of "price and volume double decline" to a new stage of "stable prices and increased revenue," potentially driving a revaluation of the sector [1] Group 2: Hydropower - In 2025, hydropower generation in China is expected to stabilize and rebound, with a nearly 30% year-on-year increase in generation during September and October, indicating marginal improvement [2] - As the depreciation of existing units expires and financial costs decrease, the profitability of hydropower companies is anticipated to further improve [2] - Major hydropower companies are characterized by high and sustainable dividend policies, enhancing their defensive attributes and investment value amid an asset scarcity backdrop [2] Group 3: New Energy - The new energy sector is expected to experience a "short-term pressure, long-term positive" trend in 2025, with market price declines in nuclear power suppressing revenue growth [3] - Policy adjustments in regions like Guangdong and the rollback of VAT exemptions for new units are causing structural impacts, but long-term approval acceleration and technological breakthroughs are solidifying growth potential [3] - Wind and solar installations continue to grow significantly, although there are increasing consumption pressures; supportive policies for green electricity consumption and marginal cash flow improvements for some companies are providing support for healthy industry development [3]