EASTMONEY(SZ:300059) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-25 02:46Group 1 - The Chinese health supplement industry is in a continuous expansion phase, driven by both evergreen and new consumer markets, with a retail scale expected to reach 260.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6.3% from 2019 to 2024 [2][9] - The per capita consumption of health supplements in China is only 26 USD, significantly lower than that in mature markets like the US and South Korea, indicating substantial room for penetration growth [2][29] - The consumer demographic is becoming younger and more diverse, with the 25-40 age group increasingly dominating the market, and a notable rise in consumption from lower-tier cities [2][31] Group 2 - Sales channels have evolved from direct sales and pharmacies to a diversified e-commerce model, with e-commerce accounting for 48.02% of sales in 2023, and live-streaming e-commerce penetration expected to reach 34.3% in 2024 [3][9] - Emerging brands are rapidly gaining market share through platforms like Douyin, which has seen significant sales growth in health supplements over the past three years [3][9] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is also growing, with flexible product entry mechanisms, and platforms like Douyin Global Purchase and Pinduoduo Global Purchase becoming mainstream channels [3][9] Group 3 - The contract manufacturing segment is expected to grow, with an estimated scale of approximately 3.4 billion USD in 2024, projected to reach 4 billion USD by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 5.0% [3][9] - New consumer trends are driving demand for contract manufacturing, as emerging brands often adopt asset-light operational models, leading to increased demand for contract manufacturing services [3][9] - Major players like Xianle Health and Baihe Co. are positioned to benefit from this trend due to their research and scale advantages [3][10] Group 4 - Brand manufacturers are actively adjusting their product offerings and channel strategies to align with industry trends, focusing on innovative formulations and new sales channels [4][10] - Regulatory frameworks are becoming more standardized, with health supplements now subject to dual-track registration and filing management, promoting a more regulated and high-quality industry environment [4][10] - Companies are increasingly focusing on operational capabilities in marketing, channel management, and brand building to capture consumer interest and market share [4][10] Group 5 - The investment outlook suggests that the health supplement industry is poised for growth driven by channel shifts and emerging product categories, with contract manufacturers benefiting from increased demand [11] - Recommended focus on leading contract manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities and brand manufacturers that are adapting to new consumer trends and channel dynamics [11]