JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-12-25 07:44Global Market Outlook - The global market in 2026 is characterized by a blend of resilience and risks, influenced by divergent monetary policies, the acceleration of AI, and structural market differentiation [1][2] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that fiscal stimulus and robust corporate and household balance sheets will support continued global growth, despite weakening corporate confidence and a slowing labor market [1][2] Stock Market - Morgan Stanley holds a positive outlook for the global stock market in 2026, expecting double-digit gains in both developed and emerging markets driven by strong earnings growth, declining interest rates, and the ongoing rise of AI [7] - The AI-driven supercycle is expected to propel record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion across various sectors, creating both winners and losers [7] - The S&P 500 index is projected to see a 13%-15% super trend earnings growth over the next two years due to the AI supercycle [7] Economic Outlook - The global economy is at a critical juncture, with structural imbalances emerging as demand shifts towards technology capital expenditures and employment growth stagnates [12] - Morgan Stanley estimates a 35% probability of recession in the U.S. and globally in 2026, although fiscal stimulus is expected to boost GDP growth in the first half of 2026 [12][13] Interest Rate Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that most developed markets will see economic growth at or above potential levels in 2026, with inflation continuing to decline but remaining sticky in some economies [14] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates by 50 basis points [14] Commodity Predictions - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2026, with supply growth anticipated to outpace demand growth significantly [17] - Morgan Stanley maintains a Brent crude oil price forecast of $58 per barrel for 2026, with gold prices projected to rise to $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 [17][19]