Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-25 09:44Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategist team warns of a potential "no-employment productivity boom" in the U.S. economy, where weak labor markets suppress wage growth and inflation while accelerating productivity maintains steady economic growth [1][5] - The firm estimates that this trend could lead to core inflation falling below 2%, allowing the Federal Reserve to significantly cut interest rates without concerns of inflation rebounding [5] Group 2: Stock-Bond Relationship - The report indicates a fundamental shift in the correlation between stocks and bonds, predicting that the "bad news is good news" trading pattern may end, leading to increased sensitivity of risk assets to negative economic data [1][6] - As inflation expectations stabilize or face downward risks, U.S. Treasury bonds may regain their traditional role as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge [6] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Morgan Stanley forecasts a potential surge in commodity and energy prices driven by a weaker dollar and recovering demand from major consumer countries, with gold prices recently breaking the $4,400 mark [2][7] - The firm maintains a baseline prediction of a 13% increase in the S&P 500 index for 2026, but emphasizes that these variables could lead to deviations from conventional market expectations [2]